Expected Value (EV) Calculator
Find out what a bet is really worth. Enter the odds you can bet and your true win probability (or a fair no-vig line) to get expected value in dollars and percent.
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How to calculate EV on a bet
- Enter the odds you can bet. The actual price at your sportsbook, in any format.
- Enter the true probability. From your model, or paste a fair no-vig line from a sharp market.
- Enter your stake. EV is shown per bet in dollars and as a percent of the stake.
- Bet only positive EV. A positive number means the price pays more than the risk justifies. Size it with the bankroll calculator.
EV examples on a $100 bet
| Odds | True win prob. | EV % | EV on $100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| -110 | 50% | -4.55% | −$4.55 |
| -110 | 55.00000000000001% | +5.00% | +$5.00 |
| +150 | 40% | +0.00% | +$0.00 |
| +150 | 43% | +7.50% | +$7.50 |
| +300 | 20% | -20.00% | −$20.00 |
| -250 | 75% | +5.00% | +$5.00 |
Break-even at -110 is 52.38%, which is why a 50/50 bet at standard juice is −4.5% EV. Small changes in price matter: the same 43% shot is +7.5% EV at +150 and negative at +125.
Next steps: size the bet with the bankroll calculator or Kelly calculator, and find live candidates on the +EV finder.
FAQ
What is the EV formula for sports betting?
EV = p × (decimal odds − 1) × stake − (1 − p) × stake, where p is the true win probability.
What is a good EV percentage?
Sustained +2% to +5% EV is excellent on major markets. Anything above +10% usually means a stale line or a mistaken probability, so double-check it.
Where do I get the true probability?
The most common method is the no-vig price from a sharp sportsbook or the market consensus. Our +EV finder does this automatically across books.
Can a +EV bet lose?
Yes, often. EV is a long-run average; a single bet still wins or loses. Positive EV wins money over hundreds of similar bets.
More free betting calculators
- Bankroll CalculatorKelly, units, EV, converter and parlay in one place.
- Kelly Criterion CalculatorOptimal stake from your edge and the odds.
- Odds ConverterAmerican, decimal, fractional, implied %.
- Implied Probability CalculatorOdds to win %, vig and no-vig prices.
- Parlay CalculatorCombined odds and payout for any legs.
- Hedge CalculatorLock profit or cut loss on an open bet.
- Arbitrage CalculatorStakes for a guaranteed 2- or 3-way arb.
- No-Vig CalculatorFair odds with the juice removed.
Put the math to work: live odds board · +EV finder · weekly line movement report.