← Back to today's reads

Strategy Β· Friday, July 10 Β· 6 min read

The math behind bet sizing, written for someone who has done it wrong

Most sharp/square divides come down to staking discipline, not edge. Two players with the same picks and different size strategies end the year on different planets.

Kelly is the academic answer; half-Kelly is the practical one. Full Kelly maximizes long-run growth but expects you to estimate edge precisely. Nobody does. Half-Kelly cuts variance roughly in quarters with only a small hit to growth β€” and forgives the error in your edge estimate that you cannot remove.

The two destructive habits: flat-staking on every pick regardless of edge, and freerolling on a streak. Flat-staking treats a 3% edge and a 0.5% edge identically. Freerolling spends an opening run before the model has even sampled enough trials to know whether you have an edge at all. Discipline is small. The damage of skipping it is not.

More from today

MLB5 min

Probable pitchers reshaping the moneylines this week

Halle Okafor

NHL5 min

Goalie carousel: how three starters changed this week's totals

Marcus Hale

NFL5 min

Week ahead in the NFL: three lines worth a second look

Della Quinn