Leicester closing as Premier League champions at 5000-to-1 sounds like a market failure. It wasn't. The price reflected the truth of the moment the line was posted — a club that had narrowly avoided relegation the prior season, with no marquee buys, in a league dominated by four giants. The chance the model gave them was about as accurate as the chance you'd give any random 17th-place team to win the next title.
The trade isn't 'find the next Leicester.' The trade is recognizing which underlying assumptions are about to change. The market priced talent levels. What changed was a single coaching hire's tactical fit, an underrated set-piece routine, and an unusually injury-free season. None of those would have moved a futures line in August. All three were the entire story by May. Mispriced futures live in the gap between what changes a number and what changes a season.