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Strategy · Friday, May 29 · 6 min read

Closing line value in plain English, with three honest counter-examples

CLV is the cleanest scoreboard for whether your process is improving. It's also misused so often that some sharp players have started ignoring it. Here's what it actually says, and where it lies.

If you bet a side at -110 and it closes at -125, your number beat the close. That's CLV in one sentence. Over a large enough sample, players who beat the close are net-positive after vig. That's the part that's true.

Three places CLV lies: thin markets where the closing number is manipulated by a single late move, props that close hours before kickoff and never re-open, and futures where the closing line is months away and your number was right for a season that already moved on. CLV is a scoreboard, not a result — confirm it with a profit curve before you trust it.

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